Memorandum
To: Interested Parties
From: Rick Wiley, RNC Political Director
Date: July 27, 2011
RE: Happy Birthday, Mr. President
President Barack Obama, our 44th President, celebrates his 50th birthday next week. As the President opens his cards and unwraps his gifts, his campaign should take note of his unsettling approval numbers. According to Pollster.com’s national polling average, only 44% of the country approves of his overall job performance, while over 50% disapproves.
SURPRISE!!! (cue the kazoos, party hats, and confetti here)
If that isn’t enough to ruin the party, then perhaps a look at the President’s current standing in important battleground states in the country’s Heartland and Southeast will provide the proverbial floater in the punchbowl.
The Heartland
Indiana, Iowa, and Ohio – three states former President George W. Bush carried in 2004 and President Obama carried in 2008 – represent 35 Electoral Votes in the nation’s heartland that President Obama must defend.
In June the New York Times reported Obama’s advisors had all but written off Indiana, believing the state “is out of reach.” This is a wise decision given Obama won the state by less than one point in 2008 and no statewide Democrat candidate in 2010 managed to get above 40%.
In Iowa, where Obama defeated John McCain by nearly 10 points, polling in June by Mason Dixon Polling and Research shows Obama trailing one potential GOP opponent by three points, and leading another potential opponent by only one point. Momentum at the ballot box swung back to Republicans in 2010, and the Democrat voter registration edge that helped Obama in November 2008 has shrunk from 111,000 to roughly 35,000 today.
In Ohio, the biggest electoral prize of the three, a survey released by Quinnipiac last week shows only 46% of Ohio voters approve of Obama’s handling of his job as President, and only 38% of Ohio voters approve of Obama’s handling of the economy. In the same survey, only 46% of all voters and 40% of Independents said Obama deserved to be reelected. Just last fall Republicans swept all statewide offices and won 13 of 18 US House races.
The Southeast
In the Southeast Obama must try to defend 57 Electoral Votes in Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia.
Obama carried Virginia comfortably by 6 points in 2008 but since then the state has been consistently red. A June Quinnipiac survey showed Obama struggling to gain any edge, with voters evenly divided 48%-48% on whether they approve of the job Obama is doing, and 47%-47% on whether Obama deserves to be re-elected. Independent voters – a group Obama won in Virginia in 2008 – were decidedly against the President, with only 41% approving of the way he is handling his job, and only 38% saying he deserves to be reelected.
In North Carolina – a state Obama won by only 14,177 votes – a pair of recent polls also point to trouble. A survey released in July by Public Policy Polling (an unapologetically Democrat firm) showed the President’s job approval rating at 45%, with a majority (51%) disapproving of his job performance. Independent voters disapproved of Obama by a whopping 26 points in the survey, with only 36% approving and 62% disapproving. Virtually identical findings were reported by a Civitas survey in July, with Obama’s approval ratings upside-down by 8 points among all voters (44% – 52%) and upside-down by 27 points among Independent voters (33% – 60%.)
Lastly, the perennial battleground of Florida provided some of the worst polling news for Obama in July. A Sunshine State News Poll showed only 38% of likely voters in Florida approve of the job the President has done. While suffering from the fifth highest state unemployment rate in the country, only 14% of voters surveyed felt the economy had improved in the last year and 56% said it has gotten worse. The President only won Florida by 3 points in 2008 and therefore has little room for error.
The precarious situation for President Obama in these states mirrors his standing in battleground states elsewhere in the country. The President should have more than enough to wish for when he blows out his candles next week.
The Cleveland County Republican Party held its annual Reagan Day Dinner on Saturday evening at Owl’s Eye Winery. Smoke on the Square catered the event to a full house. Senator Richard Burr and Congressman Patrick McHenry addressed the crowd.
